Weekly Market Watch

Market Outlook

Domestic equities rebounded last week, led by smaller capitalization and value stocks. Despite Target Corp. experiencing its worst one-day return since 2022, Consumer Staples delivered one of the strongest sector returns as defensive sectors rallied. Geopolitical risk relating to the Russia-Ukraine war contributed to the largest weekly jump in the price of crude oil in more than a month; however, the price remains above the year’s lows as global demand remains weak. The divergence between strong service economy data and contracting manufacturing activity continued last week; the S&P Global U.S. Services PMI^® reached the highest level since March 2022, while the Manufacturing report has been in contraction territory since July. Despite the holiday-shortened trading week ahead, the economic calendar is “stuffed” with key economic releases, such as the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, which consensus expects to show signs of reacceleration.

Chart of the Week

The holiday shopping season kicks off this week with Black Friday. As is tradition, PNC conducted its 41st whimsical economic analysis on the cost of gift giving in concert with the holiday song, “The 12 Days of Christmas.”

The gifts included in the song will cost 5.4% more than they did in 2023. The rise is primarily attributable to an increase in the cost of services, similarly to what has driven broader U.S. inflation.

For more holiday fun, please visit PNC’s interactive website.

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For definitions of indexes used in this publication, please refer to pnc.com/indexdefinitions.

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